The Space and Upper Atmospheric Research Commission (Suparco) has estimated record bumper 26.2 million tonnes of wheat production this season, with the Punjab topping 19.513 million tonnes.

In its latest Rabi crop estimates, the commission claimed that as far as 2012-13 wheat crop is concerned, the satellite based crop data indicate that it is spectacular on account of multiple factors.Some of these include (a) abundant supplies of phosphate fertilisers and (b) well distributed rains (nine times during December to February period).

The phosphates in plant systems are responsible for (a) growth and proliferation of root system allowing better moisture absorption and (b) formation of starches, emboldening grain size and weight, leading to an increase in crop yield.The rains covered the critical wheat growth stages of tillering, booting, flagging, earring, grain filling and maturity in some areas. Given all these positive developments, Pakistan will be harvesting a bumper crop of wheat this year.

The projection are combined result of information on area sown under wheat crop is based on satellite image classification drawn from 5m resolution satellite imagery. These data are validated by a referral area frame system.

The crop production estimates are based on a modulator approach of three factors: temporal crop growth measured by satellite systems, agro-met factors (rainfall, temperatures max/min and sunshine duration), irrigation water withdrawal from the canal head works, fertiliser off take, satellite image values (NDVI) and historic crop yields-crop cut data.

The ground surveys were carried out by joint teams of the SUPARCO and Crop Reporting wings of the provinces during the months of January and February in all provinces.The phosphate fertiliser availability during these critical timelines of sowing months between October-December was 0.313 million nutrient tonnes during 2012 against 0.262 million nutrient tonnes during corresponding months of 2011, up by 19.7pc.

The nitrogen supply in terms of nutrient tonnes was 2.465 million tonnes during October 2012 to February 2013 against 2.519 million nutrient tonnes during same timelines during last Rabi season, down by 2.1pc.The overall irrigation water supply during October 2012 to February 2013 period increased by 1.158maf to 26.083maf against 24.925maf during the same period last year. Most of this additional water supply was in Sindh province followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The supply in Sindh was 11.293maf compared to 8.623maf during last year, up by 31 per cent. In KP the irrigation water supply was 0.431maf compared to 0.384maf last year, up by 12.1 per cent.The irrigation water supplies in Punjab and Balochistan decreased. The current season irrigation water supply in Punjab was 13.823maf against 14.940maf during last Rabi season, down by 7.5 per cent. The effect of shortage was more pronounced in Jhelum-Chenab (-11.33 per cent) than Indus zone of the Province (-2.50 per cent).

There was drastic reduction of irrigation water supply in Balochistan, of 45.1pc from 0.977maf during the last Rabi season to 0.536maf during current season.The shortfall in irrigation water supply was generally supplemented by frequent and well spread out rains, the commission said.