The road to elections appeared absolutely clear when the ruling coalition signed an agreement with Pakistan Awami Tehrik Chairman Dr Tahirul Qadri to bring an end to his followers’ four-day sit-in in Islamabad on January 17. But it looked a bit bumpy when the PAT chief moved a petition in the Supreme Court challenging the constitution of the Election Commission of Pakistan.

A three-judge bench, headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, is scheduled to start hearing of the petition from today. It’s not clear how many days will the bench take to complete the hearing and give a verdict.The petitioner, who will personally argue the case, thinks that the matter may be decided in a week.

In case the petition is rejected, the ECP will continue to work as usual and the elections will be held on time – by middle of May.But a totally different situation may crop up in case the court accepts the petition and orders reconstitution of the poll body.Such a verdict may lead to delaying the elections, although the CJP has repeatedly stated that polls should be held on time and he wouldn’t let anyone derail the democratic process.

Dr Qadri says in his petition that the procedure laid down in the Constitution had not been fully adhered to while selecting the Chief Election Commissioner and the four members of the ECP.Former law minister Babar Awan, who was in the office when the exercise for the selection of the CEC and the ECP members was going on, supports the PAT chief’s point of view. However, some other people have a different opinion.

A very senior lawyer who did not like to be named said while talking to TheNation that ‘substantive compliance’ of the constitutional provisions had been carried out, ‘ritual compliance’ not.This means now it is for the court to decide how much importance it accords to the lack of ritual compliance.
Also much depends on the position to be taken by the attorney general while presenting the government’s point of view. In case he agrees with Dr Qadri’s assertion that lapses were committed in completing the procedural formalities, the PAT chief will stand vindicated. But if he takes a different stand, the petitioner will have to work very hard to prove his contention.

So far, it is not clear what position the government will take. The government has stated many a time that it is in favour of holding elections on time, but its adversaries allege that it wants to delay them as much as possible and that it is behind Dr Qadri’s anti-ECP move.There are reports that the PML-N is thinking of filing a petition in the apex court to become a party to this case.If this happens, the main petition may take a bit longer to decide.

Constitutional experts say that the elections may be held on time even if the ECP is reconstituted in accordance with the procedure mentioned in the basic law. They think that the CEC and all members can be renominated as their eligibility has not been questioned.(However, there are credible reports that in such an eventuality CEC Fakhruddin G Ebrahim may refuse to accept the assignment).

Experts say that if the government wants to delay the electoral process, it may go for the dissolution of the National Assembly. And since the ‘appointing authority’ for the CEC and the ECP members will not be there, the selection of their replacements will not be an easy task.But another set of experts is of the view that in such a situation the Chief Justice of Pakistan will have the power to appoint an acting CEC. Similarly, they say in the absence of the National Assembly, the Senate is quite competent to select the ECP members.

The uncertainty about the elections will persist till the Supreme Court’s decision.At present, most of the parties have suspended their election-related activities and riveted their eyes on the apex court.